Bitcoin Stuck Below $100K—Will a Breakout Finally Happen?

Bitcoin has remained below $100,000 for over two weeks, consolidating within the $95,000 to $100,000 range. The ongoing US-China trade tensions continue to weigh on the crypto market, contributing to a $260 billion decline in altcoin market value over the past two weeks—one of the largest drops in history, signalling a bear market event for altcoins.

Many assets are struggling to gain adoption or establish a strong market position, creating a challenging environment that has led to a sharp collapse in altcoin prices. In recent weeks, all altcoin categories have underperformed relative to Bitcoin, with most experiencing a widespread sell-off. The downturn has been broad-based, with little distinction between different altcoin sectors, and only a handful of assets have managed to avoid the slump.

Bitcoin has seen significant price swings in recent weeks but remains largely range-bound, with the market characterised by volatility and consolidation. Currently, Bitcoin is trading between $90,000 and $100,000 without a clear breakout setup in either direction. The market is waiting for a major catalyst—whether positive or negative—to dictate Bitcoin’s next move.

Image Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s volatility has also compressed significantly. According to Glassnode data, the two-week realised volatility, which measures how turbulent Bitcoin has been over the past two weeks on an annualised basis, has dropped to 32%—one of the lowest levels in years. Additionally, the one-month implied volatility, reflecting market expectations for price swings over the next four weeks, has fallen below 50%, reaching one of its lowest levels in years.

Image Source: Glass Node

LIBRA Token Scam Shakes the Crypto Market

Argentina’s President Javier Milei is under investigation for potential fraud after briefly promoting the $LIBRA cryptocurrency, which plummeted within hours of its launch. His endorsement on social media sparked a speculative frenzy, causing the market cap to surge from $130 million to over $4.5 billion in just 42 minutes, only to crash shortly after. Milei deleted his post within hours, raising significant red flags in the crypto community.

Image Source: CoinGabbar

Blockchain analysis revealed insider wallets offloaded over $107 million worth of tokens through one-sided liquidity removals, raising suspicions of a pump-and-dump scheme. Federal Judge María Servini leads the investigation, alongside Argentina’s Anti-Corruption Office. Reports suggest that the same team behind $LIBRA was also responsible for $MELANIA, a meme coin linked to First Lady Melania Trump, further shaking confidence in Solana’s ecosystem, which has become entangled in multiple questionable projects. The event is now being questioned as “Is This the Biggest Rug Pull in Crypto History?”, leaving traders devastated and questioning the involvement of politicians in endorsing cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin Maxi "PlanB" Moves All Holdings to ETFs

In a surprising move, renowned Bitcoin analyst PlanB, known for his Stock-to-Flow model, announced on February 15 that he has moved his entire Bitcoin holdings into spot ETFs. This transition marks a significant shift from the "Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins" philosophy that hardcore Bitcoin maximalists typically adhere to.

PlanB cited the ease of managing Bitcoin through ETFs alongside equities and bonds as his primary reason for the shift. The announcement sent ripples through the market, raising concerns about whether this could signal a broader trend among long-term Bitcoin holders. If more Bitcoin maxis follow suit, it could reshape how Bitcoin is stored and traded, moving away from self-custody and towards institutionalised investment products.

FTX Repays Creditors While Solana Faces $2 Billion Unlock 

FTX creditors will finally start receiving repayments totalling $16 billion, with the first phase set to distribute between $6.5 billion and $7 billion beginning February 18. The influx of liquidity is expected to boost market sentiment, with analysts predicting that at least half of these funds could flow back into the crypto market.

Meanwhile, Solana is bracing for a major supply event. On March 1, $2 billion worth of SOL (11.2 million tokens) will be unlocked from the FTX estate, introducing significant selling pressure. Notably, major buyers, including Galaxy Digital, acquired SOL at just $64, significantly below the current market price of $177, incentivising them to take profits.

Image Source: Solana Messari

Adding to Solana’s woes, its ecosystem has been plagued by meme coin scams, including the $LIBRA scandal. Sentiment around Solana remains weak, with its price underperforming compared to BTC, ETH, and BNB. The key question is whether the newly unlocked SOL will flood the market or be offloaded via over-the-counter (OTC) deals to minimise impact. Regardless, all eyes are on March 1, as traders brace for potential volatility in Solana’s price action.